County on Pace to Run Out of Residential Land by 2027




















The County's 20 year supply of residential land will last about 11 years at the current pace of population growth.

This chart shows how long it will take to consume the 50,468.3 housing units that the County assumes could be developed on the currently available residential land, using 3 different population growth assumptions.  Assuming the current rate of growth, we will be out of land for new homes by 2027.  Using the County growth rate, we will be out of land by 2033.  In any event, there is not adequate supply for the next 20 years.

Here is how I figure:

Clark County's Vacant Lands Inventory estimates that there is enough residential land to develop 50,468.3 houses.  This estimate was prepared by Clark County and used for the 2015 Comprehensive Plan Update.  County Council assumed that the annual population growth countywide would be 1.28%.  They assumed that there would be 2.66 people per household and that those 50468.3 houses would accommodate 134,245.8 people.  They did not provide for any vacancy.

The assumed 1.28% growth rate is very low.  It is even lower than the rate experienced over the past 10 years, which included the housing crash and recession.  It is significantly lower than the current rate of 2.02%.  And it is lower than any 20 year period in recent history.  A higher rate seems likely.

Our current housing vacancy rate is approximately 2.36%.   That is a very low rate relative to recent history.  And it is likely the cause of the current widely reported "Affordable Housing Crisis".  There are not enough houses or apartments.  So the vacancy rate is very low.  So prices are going up.  To make these projections, I have assumed that we will build ourselves up to a 4% vacancy rate over the next 3 years.  That vacancy rate would still be low, but would provide a little bit of relief from the current price increases.

At some point, I will dig a little deeper into the vacant lands inventory to see if there really is enough land to build 50,000 homes.

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