June 2011 Case Shiller - Portland Low Tier



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Population Growth Outpacing County Expectations

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Two years after the 2015 update to the comp plan, Clark County population growth is almost two years ahead of schedule and growing 1.7 times faster than planned.   At this rate the County will reach the 2035 population target of 577,431 more than eight years ahead of schedule. The County’s population growth has exceeded the County planner’s projections by 10,700 (or 93%) after only two years. The County is on track to completely run out of land for housing within 10 years. Other than that, the Growth Management Act appears to be working quite well in Clark County.
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Price Appreciation Driven by Supply and Demand

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Home prices in Clark County are increasing rapidly.  In many ways this market feels like the 2005-2007 market.  Houses listed for sale are generating multiple offers within a few days.  They are generally selling for asking price or above.  People don't seem to care about over-paying, because they assume the house will be worth more in a few months. That said, there are significant differences between this market and the 2005-2007 Market.  in 2007, home prices were unaffordable relative to median incomes and interest rates.  There was also an oversupply of single family homes.  Now homes are relatively affordable, and there is a shortage of all types of housing. In 2007, the median income earner could only afford 77% of the average home. Now in 2016, the median income earner can afford 111% of the average home. Homes are much more affordable today. This is due to rising income and reduced interest rates.  See the chart below T...
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Portland Home Prices Outpace Nation

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Case Shiller is a few months behind.  So when they release their data, we never learn too much about pricing in our area.  However, it is interesting to compare prices in Portland MSA (includes Vancouver) with the rest of the nation. The above chart indicates that Portland price increases are out-pacing the rest of the Nation.  They were rising together until about the end of 2013.  Then Portland prices accelerated while National prices decelerated. Home prices in Portland have exceed 2007 peak levels.  Nationwide, home prices remain below the peak achieved in 2006. The next chart breaks the Portland market down to look at the low and high price tiers. Prices of lower prices homes in Portland are increasing much rapidly more than higher priced homes.  However, all are increasing rather rapidly.  And all price levels have exceed 2007 peak levels.
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