Case Shiller October 2011


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Portland Home Prices Outpace Nation

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Case Shiller is a few months behind.  So when they release their data, we never learn too much about pricing in our area.  However, it is interesting to compare prices in Portland MSA (includes Vancouver) with the rest of the nation. The above chart indicates that Portland price increases are out-pacing the rest of the Nation.  They were rising together until about the end of 2013.  Then Portland prices accelerated while National prices decelerated. Home prices in Portland have exceed 2007 peak levels.  Nationwide, home prices remain below the peak achieved in 2006. The next chart breaks the Portland market down to look at the low and high price tiers. Prices of lower prices homes in Portland are increasing much rapidly more than higher priced homes.  However, all are increasing rather rapidly.  And all price levels have exceed 2007 peak levels.
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Price Appreciation Driven by Supply and Demand

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Home prices in Clark County are increasing rapidly.  In many ways this market feels like the 2005-2007 market.  Houses listed for sale are generating multiple offers within a few days.  They are generally selling for asking price or above.  People don't seem to care about over-paying, because they assume the house will be worth more in a few months. That said, there are significant differences between this market and the 2005-2007 Market.  in 2007, home prices were unaffordable relative to median incomes and interest rates.  There was also an oversupply of single family homes.  Now homes are relatively affordable, and there is a shortage of all types of housing. In 2007, the median income earner could only afford 77% of the average home. Now in 2016, the median income earner can afford 111% of the average home. Homes are much more affordable today. This is due to rising income and reduced interest rates.  See the chart below T...
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OFM April 1, 2017 Population Report

The OFM just released their April 1, 2017 population and housing stock estimate.  They do this once a year.  Given the apparent shortage of housing in Clark County, I was particularly interested in the ratios between the population and numbers of different types of houses in Vancouver and Clark County. As most people in the industry would have guessed, there are far fewer homes-per-person in Clark County and Vancouver than there have been in many years.  Once again, the builders did not build enough homes of any kind to keep up with the demand driven by population growth. Below is a summary of some of the information I pulled from the report: Clark County: Population Up 2.17% ·                      Population in 2017:  471,000 ·                    ...
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