Real Estates, RMLS and Case Shiller


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Price Appreciation Driven by Supply and Demand

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Home prices in Clark County are increasing rapidly.  In many ways this market feels like the 2005-2007 market.  Houses listed for sale are generating multiple offers within a few days.  They are generally selling for asking price or above.  People don't seem to care about over-paying, because they assume the house will be worth more in a few months. That said, there are significant differences between this market and the 2005-2007 Market.  in 2007, home prices were unaffordable relative to median incomes and interest rates.  There was also an oversupply of single family homes.  Now homes are relatively affordable, and there is a shortage of all types of housing. In 2007, the median income earner could only afford 77% of the average home. Now in 2016, the median income earner can afford 111% of the average home. Homes are much more affordable today. This is due to rising income and reduced interest rates.  See the chart below T...
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County on Pace to Run Out of Residential Land by 2027

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The County's 20 year supply of residential land will last about 11 years at the current pace of population growth. This chart shows how long it will take to consume the 50,468.3 housing units that the County assumes could be developed on the currently available residential land, using 3 different population growth assumptions.  Assuming the current rate of growth, we will be out of land for new homes by 2027.  Using the County growth rate, we will be out of land by 2033.  In any event, there is not adequate supply for the next 20 years. Here is how I figure: Clark County's Vacant Lands Inventory estimates that there is enough residential land to develop 50,468.3 houses.  This estimate was prepared by Clark County and used for the 2015 Comprehensive Plan Update.  County Council assumed that the annual population growth countywide would be 1.28%.  They assumed that there would be 2.66 people per household and that those 50468.3 ho...
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Portland Home Prices Outpace Nation

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Case Shiller is a few months behind.  So when they release their data, we never learn too much about pricing in our area.  However, it is interesting to compare prices in Portland MSA (includes Vancouver) with the rest of the nation. The above chart indicates that Portland price increases are out-pacing the rest of the Nation.  They were rising together until about the end of 2013.  Then Portland prices accelerated while National prices decelerated. Home prices in Portland have exceed 2007 peak levels.  Nationwide, home prices remain below the peak achieved in 2006. The next chart breaks the Portland market down to look at the low and high price tiers. Prices of lower prices homes in Portland are increasing much rapidly more than higher priced homes.  However, all are increasing rather rapidly.  And all price levels have exceed 2007 peak levels.
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